Normalcy bias is a cognitive bias that leads individuals to deny or minimise the possibility and consequences of a disaster because they expect the future to resemble the past.
This bias doesn’t mean people are careless. Instead, it reflects how the human brain seeks comfort in routine and familiarity.
Example
During a severe headwave, local authorities issue alerts urging people to stay indoors, hydrate, and avoid outdoor work. Despite this, Malcolm continues his daily routine of jogging in the afternoon sun, telling himself that he has handled hot weather before and “it won’t be any worse this time”.
He ignores early signs of fizziness and fatigue, assuming it’s normal tiredness. Only after collapsing from heat exhaustion does he realise that his belief in normal conditions had put his health at serious risk.
As you can see, normalcy bias caused the individual to think “nothing bad has ever happened before”, but unexpectedly, something happened. Consequently, it put his life at risk.
This article explores what normalcy bias is, why it happens, how it affects decision-making, and how you can avoid falling into its trap.
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What is Normalcy Bias?
Normalcy bias, also called normality bias, refers to the human tendency to underestimate both the likelihood and potential impact of disasters or disruptive events. People affected by this bias assume that life will continue as usual, even in the face of strong evidence to the contrary.
Psychologist Enrico Quarantelli and disaster researcher Thomas Drake described normalcy bias as the belief that “things will always function normally”, causing people to ignore warnings and delay action during emergencies.
In psychology, normalcy bias is considered an offshoot of broader cognitive biases that distort risk perception and decision-making, especially in rare or high-impact situations like earthquakes, pandemics, floods, or financial crashes.
Why does normalcy bias happen?
Humans are wired to rely on past experiences to predict the future. This works well in everyday life, but becomes dangerous when facing rare or unprecedented threats.
From a psychological perspective, normalcy bias occurs because:
- The brain prefers familiar patterns over uncertainty.
- Acknowledging danger creates stress and anxiety.
- Accepting a crisis often requires disruptive action (evaluation, change, loss).
Normalcy bias acts as a mental defence mechanism that helps reduce fear, but at the cost of preparedness.
Causes and Effects of Normalcy Bias
Here are the key causes and effects of normalcy bias:
Unshattered trust in our beliefs
Our beliefs work as guiding lights in our lives. We usually accept suggestions or threats that are consistent with our beliefs and make sense in our cognitive reasoning. If we are exposed to anything new or different from our routine, our brain responds to it as alien or against our beliefs.
That’s why we tend to negate the threat instantly by marking it as irrelevant. Confirmation bias affects our decision-making process about potential threats or dangers.
Social influence
When we have to make decisions about anything, like whether to evacuate our town due to the threat of a Tsunami, we look for cues from our surroundings, like what other people are doing in this situation. They are evacuating from their homes, or not; whether they should evacuate is up to them.
Making our decisions based on the social influence of the community in times of danger is a potential cause of normalcy bias. It has been observed that people do so because they don’t want to be considered overreactors or alarmists in the event of a false threat.
Resilient behaviour
Human beings are born to be resilient to change and new beliefs. That’s why when someone is alarmed about potential threats like tornadoes, tsunamis, hurricanes, thunderstorms, etc., they act normally and optimistically towards the danger.
Humans don’t like to change their surroundings because they are too accustomed to their daily activities and normal lives. This is due to their natural instinct to resist change.
A simple example is the surge of heatwaves in the UK. People who took the threat seriously took precautionary measures and avoided heatstroke; on the other hand, those influenced by normalcy bias were affected.
Optimistic approach
People get caught up in the normalcy bias because of their optimistic attitude towards potential threats or dangers. These people hope that everything good will happen to them and that they will not face anything bad, despite a threat coming their way. Being too optimistic in life can sometimes hit you badly.
For example, there’s a forecast of heavy rain in your city, and your house’s roof drips water during heavy rain. Instead of getting the roof repaired, you hope the forecasts are wrong and, if it rains, your roof will not drip this time.
You are saying this knowing that if the rain comes, there will be trouble. That’s because the normalcy bias manipulates your thought process by entwining itself with an optimistic approach.
Repeated alarms lose effectiveness
Have you heard the story of the shepherd boy who repeatedly fools the villagers by alarming them that the wolf is going to attack their sheep? After a few instances, people stop paying attention to the boy and assume that he will lie whenever he utters a word.
Once, a wolf comes to attack sheep in reality, and the boy alarms the villagers, but no one listens to him because of his perception of being built as a liar. That’s the case with humans; we get alarmed repeatedly about different things, even about the minimal threats of storms.
After some time, we stopped paying heed to the threats, assuming that it was a routine matter, and we got hit by a real threat. We do so because repeated alarms lose their effectiveness after some time.
Difference Between Normalcy and Optimism Bias
Here are the key differences between normalcy and optimism bias:
| Normalcy Bias | Optimism Bias |
|---|---|
| Underestimates the likelihood and impact of disasters. | Overestimates the chance of positive outcomes for oneself. |
| Belief → “Nothing will really change”. | Belief → “Even if it happens, I’ll be fine”. |
| It focuses on maintaining normal routines. | It focuses on personal immunity to harm. |
| Example: “Ignoring evacuation orders”. |
Example: “Believing you won’t get sick in a pandemic”. |
Normalcy Bias Examples
Let’s explore some of the most common examples relevant to our daily routine:
Example 1: Ignoring the Hurricane Warning
People ignore hurricane warnings and stay in their homes, assuming the storm won’t be as destructive as the threat posers present. There are two reasons for their ignorance:
- One, they believe their area is immunised against storms.
- Second, the storm will not come at all.
For these reasons, people underestimate the potential impact of the hurricane, leading to increased risk and harm.
Example 2: Ignoring Wildfire Warnings
People living near forests tend to ignore wildfire warnings and show reluctance to evacuate their homes. They do so because they believe it to be the kind of normal warning they receive every now and then, and nothing will happen.
Another reason for doing so is the influence of normalcy bias. Most of them believe that the fire will be contained quickly and will not reach their home due to conformity bias at work.
This kind of ignorance can lead people to dangerous situations, like getting stuck in the middle of a burning forest where getting aid is close to impossible.
Example 3: Building Collapse
Have you ever wondered why people remain living in structurally damaged buildings? They choose to remain in the building, knowing that there are cracks, because of the normalcy bias psychology. It forces people not to evacuate in time, risking their lives in the event of a building collapse.
NORMALCY BIAS IN DAILY LIFE
Normalcy bias isn’t limited to disasters. It appears in everyday situations, such as:
- Ignoring health symptoms because you’ve “always been fine”.
- Staying in toxic relationships, hoping things will improve.
- Continuing unsafe workplace practices because no accident has happened yet.
- Delaying cybersecurity upgrades because no breach has occurred.
In all cases, the assumption is the same, such as “the future will mirror the past”.
PSYCHOLOGICAL MECHANISMS BEHIND NORMALCY BIAS
From a cognitive standpoint, normalcy bias involves:
- Heuristics → Quick mental shortcuts to simplify decisions.
- Emotional regulation → Avoiding fear by downplaying threats.
- Risk perception errors → Difficulty understanding low-probability, high-impact events.
- Cognitive dissonance → Rejecting information that conflicts with comfort.
These mechanisms make normalcy bias feel natural, even logical, until reality proves otherwise.
How to Avoid Getting Trapped In Normalcy Bias?
Here are some strategies to overcome normalcy bias:
Educate Yourself: You can avoid becoming a victim of normalcy bias by educating yourself with up-to-date news and information related to potential risks.
Make a Plan: Always make a plan to execute in dangerous situations like thunderstorms by consulting experts in emergency management or public health to survive in life-threatening situations and avoid getting entrapped in the normalcy bias.
Become Resilient: Try to show resilience towards normalcy bias by adapting yourself to change in compliance with the situation. Show resilience towards the fundamentalists within your personality and become proactive in acting rationally in alarming situations.
Can normalcy bias ever be helpful?
In everyday situations, a mild form of normalcy bias can help reduce anxiety and prevent panic. Constantly expecting disaster would be exhausting.
However, in high-risk scenarios, this same bias becomes dangerous. The key is balance, which is staying calm without ignoring reality.
Frequently Asked Questions
Normalcy bias, also known as normality bias, means the act of underestimating the potential threats, believing that things will continue without disturbance as they have in the past.
You can overcome normalcy bias by educating yourself, making a plan, and becoming resilient. By doing these things, you can change your “it won’t affect me” behaviour.
The core difference between normalcy and optimism bias is that the first one is the act of underestimating, and the preceding one is the act of overestimating the potential risks or threats.
Normalcy bias is dangerous because it delays action during emergencies, increases exposure to harm, and prevents proper preparedness for crises.
No. Normalcy bias assumes things won’t change, while optimism bias assumes bad things won’t affect you personally, although both can reinforce risky behaviour.
