What is Normalcy Bias – Causes & Examples

Have you ever come across very calm people? People who do not worry about potential threats despite knowing something is coming their way? People who tend to dismiss the severity of any threat or harmful situation?

Some people may rationalise signs of an imminent catastrophe, assuming they won’t be affected or everything will work out independently. Similarly, people may insist on sticking to their habitual routines and behaviours despite crises because they think everything will continue to run well.

This phenomenon is known as normalcy bias, and there are multiple times in our lives when we experience such bias. Before understanding the causes and examples of normalcy bias in our daily lives, let’s understand what normalcy bias is. 

What is Normalcy Bias?

As evident from its name, normalcy bias is the tendency to think everything will continue to be “normal” despite evidence or cautions.

Here is how we define normalcy bias, ‘’The term normalcy bias is a cognitive bias in which people underestimate the likelihood and potential effects of a tragedy or crisis because they believe things will carry on as usual’’.

Normalcy bias can cause people to minimise or dismiss the gravity of a threat or possible catastrophe when it is present. They can undervalue the importance of being prepared, fail to respond appropriately, or put off making crucial decisions. 

The normalcy bias may be more severe when a threat is unknown, unanticipated, or psychologically overwhelming.

According to normalcy bias psychology, individuals are reluctant to adopt essential safety measures or modify their behaviour to the new situation because they believe things will soon return to normal.

What are the Causes of Normalcy Bias?

Multiple causes of normalcy bias are associated with different cognitive and psychological factors. Some of them are described as follows: 

• Cognitive Familiarity 

Humans frequently turn to familiar patterns and previous experiences to understand and interpret their environment. Normalcy bias occurs when people significantly rely on their current cognitive schemas and predict that the future will be similar to the past. 

Many people find it challenging to recognise and accept the prospect of a considerable deviation from normality due to this reliance on well-known patterns.

• Optimism Bias

The propensity for people to assume that they are less likely than others to suffer unfavourable events is known as optimism bias. It can encourage an excessively optimistic view and the notion that problems will automatically improve without preventative steps, leading to normalcy bias. 

This bias might cause people to overestimate their capacity to cope with possible hazards and underestimate risks.

• Social Influence

People are frequently influenced by the beliefs and actions of those around them, known as social influence. It can encourage normalcy bias within a social group if members minimise or downplay the seriousness of a problem. 

Due to this social influence, individuals may need help to deviate from the group’s consensus and perform the proper activities.

• Emotional and Psychological Aspects

Dealing with the realities of a crisis or disaster can be very burdensome. Some people use normalcy bias as a protective mechanism to lessen anxiety and maintain stability and control. 

Even if not based on a precise risk evaluation, a situation’s denial or gravity can temporarily ease the mind. 

• Lack of Knowledge and Awareness

Normalcy bias sometimes develops due to ignorance or unawareness of prospective dangers. People may assume that everything will carry on as usual when they are unaware of the prospect of a crisis or have only had limited exposure to it.

Does Normalcy Bias Matter in our Everyday Life?

Yes, normalcy bias matters in different aspects of our daily lives. Some of them are discussed here:

• Preparedness and Safety

The tendency to think normally makes us less ready for catastrophes or natural disasters. We risk overlooking crucial safeguards or failing to create backup plans if we undervalue the significance of a threat or believe that everything will always go as usual. Moreover, our security and health may be at stake as a result.

• Decision-Making

Normalcy bias influences how we make decisions. We might ignore red flags or other possibilities when we believe everything will go as usual. Due to this perception, we may not react appropriately and quickly to developing situations.

• Adaptability and Resilience

A crucial component of personal development and resilience is adjusting to new circumstances and welcoming change. 

Normalcy bias might limit our capacity for adaptation by anchoring us to our daily routines and blocking our ability to see the need for change. This may hinder our capacity to overcome obstacles and failures.

• Risk Perception

Because of normalcy bias, we may overestimate the potential repercussions of particular decisions or circumstances. This bias may cause us to overlook important factors like risks and advantages, resulting in faulty judgement or poor decisions.

Moreover, Believing that negative events are less likely to happen to oneself can also contribute to normalcy bias.

• Organising and Vision

Normalcy bias affects our capacity to make plans. When we mistakenly assume that everything will always go as planned, we may overlook long-term planning or fail to foresee unexpected disruptions. This may have an impact on a variety of aspects of life, including financial planning, job advancement, and personal objectives.

Other readings: Research bias | What is Actor-Observer Bias | What is the Affect Heuristic?

Examples of Normalcy Bias in Everyday Life

One can easily witness multiple examples of normalcy bias in everyday life. Some of them are stated below: 

Frequently Asked Questions